来源于http://www.ecocn.org/wordpress/ （The Economist《经济学人》中文版）和http://ecocn.blogbus.com/ （《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版）
11月 10, 2008
[2008.11.08] 美国大选：无限期望
America's election：Great expectations
NO ONE should doubt the magnitude of what Barack Obama achieved this week. When the president-elect was born, in 1961, many states, and not just in the South, had laws on their books that enforced segregation, banned mixed-race unions like that of his parents and restricted voting rights. This week America can claim more credibly that any other western country to have at last become politically colour-blind. Other milestones along the road to civil rights have been passed amid bitterness and bloodshed. This one was marked by joy, white as well as black (see article).
相信无人质疑奥巴马于本周取胜的重要意义。这位新总统出生于1961年，那时美国很多州的法律都要求强化种族分离、禁止像奥巴马父母那样的跨族通婚、限制选举权利；这些不仅限于南部地区，而出现在全国范围内。从本周开始，美国可以更加自信的宣称：任何其他的西方国家都变得有些政治色盲了。在通向民权的道路上，其它里程碑似的重大历史事件都是在痛苦与血泊中通过的；而此次总统选举则以愉快著称，受到了包括白人及黑人在内的全国选民的称赞。
Mr Obama lost the white vote, it is true, by 43-55%; but he won almost exactly same share of it as the last three (white) Democratic candidates; Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry. And he won heavily among younger white voters. America will now have a president with half-brothers in Kenya, old schoolmates in Indonesia and a view of the world that seems to be based on respect rather than confrontation.
奥巴马丢掉了大约43%-55%的白人选票，这是不争的事实；但他与过去三位白人民主党候选人–克林顿、戈尔和肯尼迪–得到的白人选票几乎相同。同时， 他在年轻一代的白人选民中取得了重大胜利。这位新总统有一个同父异母的兄弟在肯尼亚，有老同学在印尼，他的世界观似乎建立在尊重而不是对抗的基础之上。
That matters. Under George Bush America’s international standing has sunk to awful lows. This week Americans voted in record-smashing numbers for many reasons, but one of them was an abhorrence of how their shining city’s reputation has been tarnished. Their country will now be easier for its friends to like and harder for its foes to hate.
这很重要。在布什治下，美国的国际声誉降到了糟糕地步。本周美国选民的投票数量突破了历史纪录，其中原因很多，有一个就是他们对曾经辉煌无比的城市形象已然黯淡无光而感到愤恨。现在他们的国家将会更易赢得朋友的喜爱，而不易引起敌人的仇恨。
In its own way the election illustrates this redeeming effect. For the past eight years the debacle in Florida in 2000 has been cited (not always fairly) as an example of shabby American politics. Yet here was a clear victory delivered by millions of volunteers-and by the intelligent use of technology to ride a wave of excitement that is all too rare in most democracies. Mr Obama showed that, with the right message, a candidate with no money or machine behind him can build his own.
大选用自己的方式证明了它的修复效果。2000年佛罗里达的计票风波在过去的8年中一直被引用，以证明美国政治的不光彩（并不总是公正的）。然而这一次，数百万的志愿者积极参与，技术被聪明的用以引导选民们的阵阵兴奋浪潮，在绝大多数民主国家，选民的兴奋浪潮实在是太少了。这一切都表明，这是一场光明磊落的胜利。奥巴马的胜利告诉世人，即使资金缺乏、身后没有竞选机器支持，一样可以取胜，这是一个正确的信息。
Hard times and a bleak House
艰难时世和荒凉的议院
With such a great victory come unreasonably great expectations. Many of Mr Obama’s more ardent supporters will be let down-and in some cases they deserve to be. For those who voted for him with their eyes wide open to his limitations, everything now depends on how he governs. Abroad, this 21st-century president will have to grapple with the sort of great-power rivalries last seen in the 19th century (see article). At home, he must try to unite his country, tackling its economic ills while avoiding the pitfalls of one-party rule. Rhetoric and symbolism will still be useful in this; but now is the turn of detail and dedication.
如此的重大的胜利带来了不合理的巨大期望。奥巴马的很多铁杆支持者将会感到失望–但在很多方面，他们合该如此。对于那些在投票时就认识到奥巴马能力的局限性的人来说，一切都取决于奥巴马如何治理国家。在外交事务上，这位21世纪的新总统似乎必须同19世纪的大国对手进行一番竞争。内政方面，他必须实现国家团结，在避免一党制隐患的同时还要应对经济病患。滔滔辩才和激昂的口号在解决这些问题时将依然有效，但现在是时候脚踏实地、真抓实干了。
Mr Obama begins with several advantages. At 47, he is too young to have been involved in the bitter cultural wars about Vietnam. And by winning support from a big majority of independents, and even from a fair few Republicans, he makes it possible to imagine a return to a more reflective time when political opponents were not regarded as traitors and collaboration was something to be admired.
奥巴马在起点上便有优势。47岁的奥巴马非常年轻，不会卷入越南战争这一痛苦的文化争端中。通过赢取多数独立选民、甚至是相有当数量的共和党成员的支持，奥巴马让大家看到了回归沉思年代的可能性，那时政见不同的反对者不会被当成叛国者，相互合作也是被赞赏的举动。
Oddly, he may be helped by the fact that, in the end, his victory was slightly disappointing. He won around 52% of the popular vote, more than Mr Bush in 2000 and 2004, but not a remarkable number; this was no Roosevelt or Reagan landslide. And though Mr Obama helped his party cement its grip on Congress, gaining around 20 seats in the House of Representatives and five in the Senate, the haul in the latter chamber falls four short of the 60 needed to break filibusters and pass controversial legislation without Republican support (though recounts may add another seat, or even two). Given how much more money Mr Obama raised, the destruction of the Republican brand under Mr Bush and the effects of the worst financial crisis for 70 years, the fact that 46% of people voted against the Democrat is a reminder of just what a conservative place America still is. Mr Obama is the first northern liberal to be elected president since John Kennedy; he must not forget how far from the political centre of the country that puts him.
与期望的有所不同，奥巴马取胜多少会有些让人失望，而这一事实反而会对他有所帮助。他在全民投票中的得票率为52%左右，比布什在2000年和2004年 取得的都要高，但并非一个不同寻常的成绩；比不上罗斯福和里根所取得的压倒性的胜利。同时，尽管奥巴马帮助他的党派加强了对国会的控制力，取得了众议院的 20个席位和参议院的5个席位；但在参议院获得的席位距离60个还差4个，一旦达到60个席位，就可以突破阻挠议事并且在没有共和党支持的情况下也可以通过争议性立法（即使验票也许会增加一个甚至是两个席位）。即使奥巴马筹集到海量的竞选资金、布什给共和党声誉带来的损毁程度、美国正遭受70年以来最严重金融危机所带来的灾害后果，还是有46%的选民向民主党投出反对票；这个事实提醒世人，美国还是一个相当保守的地方。奥巴马是肯尼迪时期以来首位被选为总统的北方自由党成员；他必须铭记自己距离国家的政治核心还有遥远的距离。
Mr Obama’s victory, in fact, is almost identical in scope to that of Bill Clinton in 1992; and it took just two years for the Republicans to sweep back to power in the 1994 Gingrich revolution. Should President Obama give in to some of the wilder partisans in Congress, it is easy to imagine an ugly time ahead-and not just for the Democrats in the 2010 mid-term elections. America could fatally lapse into protectionism, or re-regulate business and finance to the point at which innovation is stifled, or “spread the wealth” (to quote the next president) to the extent that capital is prudently shifted overseas.
实际上，从取胜程度上讲，奥巴马的胜利与克林顿在1992年时几乎相同；而共和党只用了2年时间就通过1994年的金里奇革命收回了大权。如果奥巴马总统屈服于国会中的狂热党徒，那么丑陋的前景就不难想象了–不仅仅指2010年的中期选举。美国可能会陷入致命的保护贸易主义氛围中，或者过度管制金融和商业以致抑制了创新，或者 过度”分散财富”（奥巴马语）令资本谨慎的转移到了海外。
Our mutual friends
我们共同的朋友
Mr Obama will not take office until January 20th, but he can use the next ten weeks well. A good start would be to announce that he will offer jobs to a few Republicans. Robert Gates, Mr Bush’s excellent defence secretary who has helped transform the position in Iraq, ought to be kept in the post for at least a while. Sadly, Richard Lugar has ruled himself out as secretary of state; but Chuck Hagel, senator for Nebraska, is another possibility for a defence or foreign-policy job. Mr Obama might even find a non-executive role for John McCain, with whom he agrees on many things, especially the need to tackle global warming and close Guantánamo. Another pragmatic move would be to announce that his new treasury secretary (ideally an experienced centrist such as Larry Summers or Tim Geithner) will start working closely with Hank Paulson, the current one, immediately.
奥巴马在1月20日之前不会就职，但他可以很好的利用未来的10周。宣布提名一些共和党员加入其内阁是一个很好的开始。布什政府中，盖茨在国防部长的职位上表现优秀，他帮助美国改变了伊拉克战区的整体形势。他至少应该继续任职一段时间。很遗憾，卢格已经不可能成为国务卿；不过内布拉斯加州议员哈格尔是国防或者外交事务工作的另一个人选。奥巴马甚至可以给麦凯恩安排一个顾问性职位，两者对许多事务持相同看法，特别在应对全球变暖和关闭关塔那摩基地这两点上。另一个务实的举措应该是向外界宣布，他的新财长（像萨默斯或者盖纳这样经验丰富的中立派出任此职九最为理想）会立即同现任财长鲍尔森联手工 作。
Whoever he appoints, Mr Obama will be constrained by the failing economy. He should not hold back from stimulus packages to help America out of recession. But he has huge promises to keep as well. He has pledged tax cuts to 95% of families. He has proposed near-universal health care-an urgent reform, as America’s population ages and companies restrict the health insurance they offer. He proposes more spending on infrastructure, both physical and human. But if he is to tackle all or any of this, he must balance his plans with other savings or new revenues if his legacy is not to be one of profligacy and debt. He has to start deciding whom to disappoint.
无论指定哪位人选，奥巴马的政策都会受制于失败的经济形势。他不应阻止可以拯救美国走出经济萧条的刺激政策，但他也有非常沉重的诺言需要遵守。奥巴马保证为95%的家庭减税，他提议了一个近乎全民健康保障的医疗计划–鉴于美国人口老龄化和保险公司对健康保险产品做出的种种限制，这是一个迫切的改革。他同时提议在基础设施（自然和人文）方面投入更多。如果他想解决上述全部或部分问题，他就必须在他的计划与其他储备或收入间找到平衡–如果他不希望自己留下的遗产是挥霍浪费或巨额债务的话。从现在开始，他必须去决定要得罪谁了。
Non-Americans must also brace for disappointment. America will certainly change under Mr Obama; the world of extraordinary rendition and licensed torture should thankfully soon be gone. But America will, as it must, continue to put its own interests, and those of its allies, first. Withdrawing from Iraq will be harder than Mr Obama’s supporters hope; the war in Afghanistan will demand more sacrifices from Americans and Europeans than he has yet prepared them for. The problems of the Middle East will hardly be solved overnight. Getting a climate-change bill through Congress will be hard.
非美国人也一定要做好失望的准备。美国肯定会在奥巴马的带领下有些改变，非常规引渡及合法酷刑应该很快消失。但是美国首先仍将（也必须）追求自身和其盟友的利益。从伊拉克撤军比奥巴马的支持者所预想的要难得多；阿富汗战争需要美国人和欧洲人付出更多的牺牲–比奥巴马准备付出的还要多。中东问题也不可能一夜之间迎刃而解。在国会通过气候变化议案依然很难。
The next ten weeks give Mr Obama a chance to recalibrate the rest of the world’s hopes. He could use part of his transition to tour the world, certainly listening to friends and rivals alike but also gently making clear the limits of his presidency. He needs to explain that, although his America will respect human rights and pay more heed to the advice of others, it will not be a pushover: he must avoid the fate of Jimmy Carter, a moralising president who made the superpower look weak.
奥巴马可以利用未来10周时间的给让全世界调整一下对他的期望。他可以利用过渡期的部分时间周游世界，倾听朋友和对手的意见，轻缓的告诉他们自己的局限性。 奥巴马需要让大家明白，尽管他的美国尊重人权、更加留意别人的意见，但不会是一个没有主见的国家：他必须避免重蹈卡特的旧辙，卡特是一个让超级大国显得软弱的道德主义总统。
Like most politicians, Mr Obama will surely fail more than he succeeds. But he is a man of great dignity, superior talents and high ideals. In choosing him, America has shown once again its unrivalled capacity to renew itself, and to surprise.
同多数政客一样，奥巴马失败的地方一定比成功的地方多。但他是一个很有尊严的人，具有超人的才华和崇高的理想。选择他作为总统，美国再次展示了无以伦比的自我更新能力和让世界惊奇的能力。
11月 10, 2008
[2008.11.01] 德国的外交政策：柏林障碍
归类于： 欧洲 — Eco Team @ 10:05 am
Germany’s foreign policy
德国的外交政策
The Berlin stonewall
柏林障碍
Oct 30th 2008 | BERLIN
From The Economist print edition
Has Germany replaced France as America’s awkward ally?
德国已经取代法国成为美国的一个尴尬盟友了吗？
SOON after Angela Merkel became Germany’s chancellor in 2005, she met George Bush in Washington to open a “new chapter” in relations. Her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, had been so stridently against the Iraq war that he began to look anti-American. Ms Merkel, by contrast, had backed the war. Germany may belong to “old Europe”, as America once dismissed opponents of the war, but Ms Merkel, a child of communist East Germany, had the instincts of a new European. The easing of tensions was helped, too, by President Bush’s efforts to repair transatlantic relations in his second term.
2005年，当选为德国总理不久后的安格拉•默克尔便在华盛顿造访了小布什，从而掀开了两国关系崭新的一 页。默克尔的前任格哈特•施罗德曾大张旗鼓地反对向伊拉克开战使得他看起来就像一位反美人士。相比之下，默克尔却支持了这场战争。作为美国曾经在战争中不 屑一顾的对手，德国也许是“老欧洲”[注1]的一员，然而出生于共产主义东德的默克尔却有着作为一名新欧洲人的本能和直觉。与此同时，布什总统在第二个任 期里致力于修补大西洋两岸关系的努力也有助于缓和两国之间存在的紧张关系。
Yet frustration is creeping back in. On Russia, Iran and Afghanistan—trouble-spots that matter to both countries—Germany’s position is annoying Washington. At the NATO summit in Bucharest last April, Ms Merkel stood most visibly against American pressure to grant a Membership Action Plan—a road-map to join the alliance—to Ukraine and Georgia. This was a marked change from previous summits at which France habitually obstructed American proposals.
然而改善两国关系的前景却愈发不容乐观。在对两国都至关重要的麻烦事上—如俄罗斯，伊朗和阿富汗等问题上，德国的立场往往让美国政府恼火不已。在今年四月布加勒斯特召开的北约峰会上，美国要求准许乌克兰和格鲁吉亚加入北约成员行动计划（Membership Action Plan）（这一计划是加盟北约的路线图），而默克尔则旗帜鲜明地站在了反对美国这一施压行为的一边。与以往峰会上法国习惯性地阻挠美国的提议相比，默克尔的这一举动有着显著的不同。
After Russian troops pushed into Georgia in August, America wanted to ostracise the Kremlin while Germany appeared eager to return to business as usual. Germany has been the leading Western sceptic in toughening economic sanctions on Iran to discourage its alarming uranium-enrichment programme. In Afghanistan, moreover, Germany’s military commitment is hedged with “caveats” that keep its troops out of the fighting in the dangerous south of the country.
在俄罗斯军队今年8月大举入侵格鲁吉亚之后，美国曾试图孤立排斥俄罗斯政府，而德国则似乎迫切希望恢复与俄罗斯过去的贸易往来。在对伊朗实行严厉的经济制裁，迫使其放弃让人不安的铀浓缩计划上，德国一直是对这一行为持怀疑态度的主要西方国家。此外，在阿富汗问题上，德国所做的军事承诺也留有了余地：该承诺中的“附加说明”使得军队在该国南部危险地区的战斗中置身事外。
In a memorandum to the new American president, the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, a think-tank, gives warning that Germany and America may “clash” over Iran and that differences over Russia could harm the relationship “severely”. In part, Germany’s problem is that it can no longer hide behind France now that President Nicolas Sarkozy has moved closer to America. He plans to lead France back into NATO’s integrated military structure next year.
在提交给美国新任总统的一份备忘录中，智库美国当代德国研究所提出警告说，德国和美国也许会在伊朗问题上意 见不一，而在对待俄罗斯问题上的分歧可能会严重损害到两国的关系。在某种程度上，德国的问题在于法国总统萨科奇实行更加亲美的政策后，德国再也无法隐藏于 法国的背后。萨科奇正计划明年带领法国重归北约一体化军事体系中。
“Berlin is the new Paris,” says a senior American official; that is where the “tough conversations” now take place. The tone of opinion columns can be merciless. “Germany by itself has enough economic leverage with Iran” to stop it from enriching uranium, thundered a recent article in the Wall Street Journal Europe; but for mercenary reasons it is not using it.
“这届德国政府就像新的法国政府一样，”一位资深的美国官员这样说道；而这正是两国目前能够展开彼此“艰难 对话”的缘由。报刊的许多专栏对此作出的评论毫不留情。《华尔街日报》欧洲版近期刊登的一篇文章语出惊人，“德国完全能够独自对伊朗施加经济影响迫使该国 停止铀浓缩。”；然而，出于经济利益的考虑，德国并没有这样做。
Germany’s inhibitions are the product of history, trade and tensions within the grand coalition government, which awkwardly yokes Ms Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union to the Social Democratic Party (SPD). It does not help that Frank-Walter Steinmeier, an SPD leader and her main political rival, is also the foreign minister. Still, both think Germany has a special role in oiling the wheels of international diplomacy, serving the interests of its allies even if they do not always appreciate it.
历史，贸易以及大联合政府内部的紧张关系是导致德国产生这些顾虑的原因。而德国的大联合政府体制使得默克尔 领导的保守主义政党—基督教民主联盟处处受制于社民党。更糟糕的是，默克尔的主要政敌—社民党领导人施泰因迈尔是该国的外交部长。不过，两人都认 为：德国在促进国际关系发展和服务于盟友的利益（即便有时并非心甘情愿）上发挥着举足轻重的作用。
The second world war left Germany allergic to militarism and eager for friendships. First it bound itself firmly into the Western alliance. Then, with Ostpolitik, it also befriended the Soviet block. Its pacific style no doubt helped trade (Germany is the world’s top exporter of goods), which in turn makes it more pacific.
第二次世界大战使得德国对军国主义深恶痛绝，德国迫切希望与他国建立起友好关系。起初，该国坚定不移地站在 西方国家联盟一边，随后在西欧国家东方政策[注2]的引导下，该国与苏联化敌为友。其奉行的和平外交无疑促进了该国的贸易发展（德国是世界上商品货物的最 大出口国），反过来也让该国更加和平安定。
Germany is the biggest Western exporter to Iran. Last year Russia was the second-fastest growing export market among Germany’s main trading partners. Germany imports more than a third of its oil and gas from Russia. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s policies diverged from those of its neighbours, which made it harder for Germany to please them all. Mr Schröder’s government approved the Nord Stream gas pipeline from Russia under the Baltic Sea, bypassing, and enraging, Poland and the Baltic states. Mr Schröder now chairs the shareholders’ committee of the consortium building it.
西方国家中，德国是伊朗最大的出口国。去年，俄罗斯成为了德国主要贸易伙伴中增长速度第二快的出口市场。德 国所需的石油和天然气中有超过三分之一有赖于于俄罗斯进口。随着苏联的解体，俄罗斯与周边邻国政策之间的背道而驰使得德国更加难以取悦各方。施罗德政府曾 经在未征求波兰和波罗的海诸国同意的情况下，批准了从俄罗斯穿过波罗的海的北欧天然气管道项目，使得这些国家大为光火。施罗德现在却成为了建造这条管道企 业的股东委员会主席。
That said, Germany is reluctantly shedding its merchant pacifism. If Iran continues enriching uranium, Germany is edging towards approving sanctions that go beyond targeting goods related to nuclear proliferation. “Germany is playing a responsible role on Iran,” says a senior Israeli official, whose country has more to fear from an Iranian bomb than any other; Germany’s differences with its allies have been “tactical, not strategic”.
这表明，德国正无可奈何地抛弃自己曾经信奉的商业和平主义。如果伊朗继续进行铀浓缩活动，德国将逐渐支持对 伊朗进行超出与核扩散有关的材料制裁。与其他国家相比，以色列更加惧怕来自伊朗的炸弹袭击，该国的一位资深官员说道，“在伊朗问题上，德国正扮演着一个负 责任的角色。”；德国与它的盟友之间的分歧在于“处理问题的具体方法，而非在这一问题上所持有的观点和看法”。
On the use of force abroad, Germany has been changing “almost with the speed of light”, says John Kornblum, a former American ambassador to Germany. Before 1992, German soldiers were deployed abroad on strictly humanitarian missions. Now it has the third-largest contingent of troops in Afghanistan (rising from 3,500 to 4,500), including a “quick reaction force” ready for combat, mainly in the north. It has military missions in Lebanon, Bosnia and Sudan. The trouble is, says Mr Kornblum, that “the world is changing faster.”
前美国驻德大使约翰•科恩布卢姆说道，在驻外军队的筹划安排上，德国正飞速地发生着转变。1992年以前， 部署在国外的德国士兵的任务严格限制在执行人道主义行动上。如今，该国已经是派驻在阿富汗的军队人数第三多的国家（由过去的3500人增加到4500 人），这其中包括主要部署在阿富汗北部地区可以随时应战的“快速反应部队”。该国在黎巴嫩，波斯尼亚和苏丹也部署了军事部队。然而，正如科恩布卢姆所说， 问题在于“世界转变地还要快”。
German officials insist that its comparative advantage will remain its knack for talking to almost everyone. Mr Steinmeier, who will challenge Ms Merkel for the chancellorship next year, is renowned, and often reviled, for not allowing a foreign government’s shortcomings to spoil a fruitful relationship. A senior diplomat argues, for instance, that “rhetoric which excludes Russia pushes it in the wrong direction”. He rejects the idea that Mr Steinmeier favours “equidistance” between Russia and the United States, a notion advocated by some members of his party. Ms Merkel, though readier to be blunt with autocrats, nurtures Germany’s honest-broker role. Other leaders trust Germany, says her spokesman, because “it has no big-power ambitions”.
德国官员坚持认为，该国的这一相对优势依然将成为与几乎所有国家对话谈判的筹码。作为明年挑战默克尔总理宝 座的施迈因泰尔在不允许一个外国政府的缺点破坏掉富有成果的外交关系上享有声誉的同时也常常饱受着责难。例如，一位资深的外交官员认为，“排斥俄罗斯的言 论会使得俄罗斯走上错误的方向”。他不认为施迈因泰尔在俄罗斯和美国之间会采取其所在政党一些成员所提倡的“中立”立场。虽然动辄与专制独裁政权针锋相 对，默克尔却塑造了德国的诚实中间人角色。默克尔的发言人说道，其他国家的领导人信任德国，因为德国并没有大国的野心。
Germany hopes that the next American administration will prove easier to deal with than Mr Bush’s. But neither Barack Obama nor John McCain will be shy about making demands of American allies, especially when it comes to Iran and Afghanistan. With Germany about to enter its own election campaign, it may take a while to say yes to America.
德国希望下一届美国政府能够比布什政府更容易应付。但是无论是奥巴马还是麦凯恩，在对盟国进行要求上都不会有所顾虑，在伊朗和阿富汗问题上尤为如此。随着德国即将开始自己的竞选活动，该国唯美国马首是瞻也许还要花上一段时间。
[注1]：“老欧洲”是美国前国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德于2003年指责法国和德国为“老欧洲”的一番言论。美国有关“老欧洲”的认识，乃是对法德重新加强联盟后形成的一种“欧洲意识”和“欧洲政治”的恐惧，其根源是对目前美国与欧洲之间真实力量对比的一种认识。
[注2]：Ostpolitik（东方政策）：原联邦德国政府谋求的与东欧社会主义国家外交及贸易关系正常化的政策。
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