世界未来发展的方向

世界未来发展的方向

This inspired thinking shared with you by IBM, let’s build a smarter planet.

The future, as we know it, is very unpredictable. The best minds in the best institutions generally get it wrong. This is in technology. This is in the area of politics, where pundits, the CIA, MI6 always get it wrong. And it’s clearly in the area of finance. With institutions established to think about the future, the IMF, the BIS, the Financial Stability Forum, couldn’t see what was coming. Over 20,000 economists whose job it is, competitive entry to get there, couldn’t see what was happening. Globalization is getting more complex. And this change is getting more rapid. The future will be more unpredictable. Urbanization, integration, coming together, leads to a new renaissance. It did this a thousand years ago. The last 40 years have been extraordinary times. Life expectancy has gone up by about 25 years. It took from the stone age to achieve that. Income has gone up for a majority of the world’s populations, despite the population going up by about two billion people over this period. And illiteracy has gone down, from a half to about a quarter of the people on earth. A huge opportunity, unleashing of new potential for innovation, for development. But there is an underbelly. There are two Achilles’ heels of globalization. There is the Achilles’ heel of growing inequality. Those that are left out, those that feel angry, those that are not participating. Globalization has not been inclusive. The second Achilles’ heel is complexity. A growing fragility, a growing brittleness. What happens in one place very quickly affects everything else. This is a systemic risk, systemic shock. We’ve seen it to the financial crisis. We’ve seen it in the pandemic flu. It will become virulent and it’s something we have to build resilience against. A lot of this is driven by what’s happening in technology. There have been huge leaps. There will be a million-fold improvement in what you can get for the same price in computing by 2030. That’s what the experience of the last 20 years has been. It will continue. Our computers, our systems will be as primitive as the Apollo’s are for today. Our mobile phones are more powerful than the total Apollo space engine. Our mobile phones are more powerful than some of the strongest computers of 20 years ago. So what will this do It will create huge opportunities in technology. Miniaturization as well. There will be invisible capacity. Invisible capacity in our bodies, in our brains, and in the air. This is a dust mite on a nanoreplica. This sort of ability to do everything in new ways unleashes potential, not least in the area of medicine. This is a stem cell that we’ve developed here in Oxford, from an embryonic stem cell. We can develop any part of the body. Increasingly, over time, this will be possible from our own skin—able to replicate parts of the body. Fantastic potential for regenerative medicine. I don’t think there will be a special Olympics long after 2030, because of this capacity to regenerate parts of the body. But the question is, ”Who will have it” The other major development is going to be in the area of what can happen in genetics. The capacity to create, as this mouse has been genetically modified, something which goes three times faster, lasts for three times longer, we could reduce, as this mouse can, to the age of our equivalent of 80 years, using about the same amount of food. But will this only be available for the super rich, for those that can afford it Are we headed for a new eugenics Will only those that are able to afford it be able to be this super race of the future So the big question for us is, “How do we manage this technological change” How do we ensure that it creates a more inclusive technology, a technology which means that not only as we grow older, that we can also grow wiser, and that we’re able to support the populations of the future One of the most dramatic manifestations of these improvements will be moving from populations pyramids, to what we might term population coffins. There is unlikely to be a pension or a retirement age in 2030. These will be redundant concepts. And this isn’t only something of the West. The most dramatic changes will be the skyscraper type of new pyramids, that will take place in China and in many other countries. So forget about retirement if you’re young. Forget about pensions. Think about life and where it’s going to be going. Of course, migration will become even more important. The war on talent, the need to attract people at all skill ranges, to push us around in our wheelchairs, but also to drive our economies. Our innovation will be vital. The employment in the rich countries will go down from about 800 to about 700 million of these people. This would imply a massive leap in migration. So the concerns, the xenophobic concerns of today, of migration, will be turned on their head, as we search for people to help us sort out our pensions and our economies in the future. And then, the systemic risks. We understand that these will become much more virulent, that what we see today, is this interweaving of societies, of systems, fastened by technologies, and hastened by just-in-time management systems. Small levels of stock push resilience into other people’s responsibility. The collapse in biodiversity, climate change, pandemics, financial crises: these will be the currency that we will think about. And so a new awareness will have to arise, of how we deal with these, how we mobilize ourselves, in a new way, and come together as a community to manage systemic risk. It’s going to require innovation. It’s going to require an understanding that the glory of globalization could also be its downfall. This could be our best century ever because of the achievements. Or it could be our worst. And of course we need to worry about the individuals. Particularly the individuals that feel that they’ve been left out, in one way or another. And individual for the first time, in the history of humanity, will have the capacity, by 2030, to destroy the planet, to wreck everything, through the creation, for example, of a biopathogen. How do we begin to weave these tapestries together How do we think about complex systems in new ways That will be the challenge of the scholars, and of all of us engaged in thinking about the future. The rest of our lives will be in the future. We need to prepare for it now. We need to understand that the governance structure in the world is fossilized. It cannot begin to cope with the challenges that this will bring. We have to develop a new way of managing the planet, collectively, through collective wisdom. We know, and I know, from my own experience, that amazing things can happen, when individuals and societies come together to change their future. I left South Africa. And 15 years later, after thinking I would never go back, I had the privilege and the honor to work in the government of Nelson Mandela. This was a miracle. We can create miracles, collectively, in our lifetime. It is vital that we do so. It is vital that the ideas that are nurtured in TED that the ideas that we think about, look forward, and make sure that this will be the most glorious century, and not one of eco-disaster, and eco-collapse. Thank you. （Applause）

众所周知未来是变幻莫测的。那些供职于顶级科研机构的各个领域的专家基本上在曲解未来。这种情况在科技政治领域很常见。美国CIA英国MI6（与CIA性质类似）的专家们就是很好的例子。在金融领域十分明显。他们建立相关机构来思考未来，比如IMF（国际货币基金组织）BIS（国际清算银行），金融稳定论坛，但是他们也没能找到答案。超过2万名经济学家，他们比谁都更迫切地想找到答案，而面对现在发生的一切，他们也没什么头绪。全球化正变得愈加复杂。而且这种变化的速度越来越快。未来将会更加难以预料。城市化，一体化，交织在一起，方向是新一轮的复兴。同样的事情在1000年前就发生过。过去的40年是非比寻常的40年。世界人均寿命增长了25岁。人类平均寿命从石器时代发展到现在才达到这个水平。世界大多数人口的收入都得到增长，尽管在此期间世界人口总数增长了20亿。此外世界人口中文盲的比例从百分之五十降至约百分之二十五。这是巨大的机遇，为创新与发展带来前所未有的可能性。可是全球化并不是完美无缺的。它有两处软肋。首先就是不平等现象。对那些感到自己被排除在全球化之外，心怀不满，不愿参与全球化的人，全球化没有做到一视同仁。全球化的第二处软肋就是他过于复杂。他愈发地脆弱，经不起打击。某地如果发生了什么会很快地波及一切。这就是我们所说的“系统性风险，系统性冲击”。我们在金融危机，大规模流感中，已经见识到他的厉害了。情况会变得更加要命，建立弹性机制加以应对势在必行。这一切很多程度上是被科技进步所驱使的。科技领域发生着翻天覆地的变化。到2030年的时候，花一样的钱你能买的比现在的电脑先进无数倍的产品。我们在过去20年中经历的就是如此。将来也是如此。我们现在用的电脑和系统以后都会变成老古董。就像我们现在回头看阿波罗飞船上的电脑一样。现在我们用的手机都比阿波罗飞船的引擎功能更强大。我们的手机，甚至比20年前有些最高端计算机还要强大。那么这意味着什么呢？这将给科技领域带来无限的机遇。在小型化领域也是如此。将来我们可以在人体，大脑，空气等肉眼无法看到的地方展开作业。尘螨下面是一台纳米自我复制机。这种变革能力带来的就是潜能的爆发，而这不仅限于医学领域。这是牛津大学从胚胎干细胞里培育出来的干细胞。我们可以培植人体各个部位。随着时间的推移从我们自己的皮肤里复制培植人体器官将不再是空想。再造医学潜力巨大。我觉得2030年之后就不会再有残奥会了，因为我们可以再造人体各部位。但问题是谁会拥有这个能力呢？另一重要的发展将会发生在遗传学领域。这就是创造的能力，就像这只转基因老鼠一样，它的速度，耐力都超出普通老鼠3倍。折算成人类的年龄的话，80岁老人也能像青年人一样充满活力，而消耗食物却与常人无异。但是这会不会仅供那些富豪，那些能消费得起的人的专用？我们的下一站是哪里？新的优生学吗难道只有那些有钱人才能做将来的超人类吗？所以我们面对的最重要的问题就是，我们该如何掌控这一科技变革？如何才能确保，这一变革将使科技更加一视同仁造福所有人？也就是说，科技让我们能够在变老的同时，智慧也随之增长，继而很好地应对未来的人口问题。能够凸显这一系列进步的将会是人口结构从金字塔形（年轻型）开始向所谓的“棺材”形（老年型）转变。到了2030年可能就不会看到诸如“养老金”“适龄退休”这类字眼了。这些概念将不再适用。不仅在西方社会，人口结构会出现巨大变化，像这种“摩天大楼形”（成年型）将会出现在中国及其他很多国家。好了，台下的年轻人还不需想退休这个问题。我们不谈养老金话题。想想生活，以后的生活。显而易见移民问题将会更加重要。人才之战即将打响。吸引人才的需求，涉及到各行各业。人才在承担赡养老龄人口的责任的同时也是经济增长的动力。我们的创新能力将是至关重要的因素。在富裕国家，工作人口的数量将从8亿降至7亿。这意味着一轮移民潮的到来。所以现在对移民的恐惧仇视情绪将来会被逆转。因为将来我们需要他们的帮助来解决养老金问题，经济问题。那么接着就是，系统性风险。我们深知这些风险的致命性会大大增加。目前，各种科学门类制度体系之间相辅相成，准时生产管理理念（JIT理念）加速了他们的融合。少量的库存可以让生产者免受适应市场之苦（JIT理念的基本要义）.我们在维持生物多样化，对应气候变化大规模疾病暴发，金融危机等问题上屡屡受挫，这些都是我们将来要考虑的课题。因此我们必须要用全新的意识。如何应对这些问题，如何以全新的方式全体动员起来，团结一致，掌控系统性风险。创新是必须的。要知道全球化如日中天的时刻，也可能成为它衰落的起点。因为有了许多的成就，本世纪可能是金色世纪，也有可能是灰色世纪。毫无疑问“个人”会是未来的隐患。尤其是那些感到自己被这样或那样的方式排挤在全球化之外的人。到2030年，个人，将史无前例的拥有毁灭地球摧毁一切的能力。比如利用制造生物病原体的方法。这盘“大杂烩”我们该如何炒呢？怎样才能用新的方法思考错综复杂的系统，机制呢？这对学者来说是挑战，对所有思考未来的人来说都是挑战。我们要未雨绸缪。要知道，世界现有的执政结构已经陈腐僵化，难以面对未来的挑战。我们管理地球的方式需要通过群策群力来革新。从我亲身经历中我明白，只有个人和社会为了改变未来，团结一致，什么事都有可能发生。15年前我离开了南非。我曾经告诉自己我再也不会回去。但我后来竟有幸为尼尔森曼德拉的政府效力。这是奇迹。在我们有生之年，我们可以团结一致，创造奇迹。这势在必行。能够在TED形成这些思考展望未来的想法很重要。同样重要的是我们要确保这个世纪成为最美好的世纪，而不是一个生态遭到严重破坏灾难重重的世纪。谢谢（掌声）

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