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外文翻译--中国楼市泡沫几何-其他专业

发布时间：2023-03-11 01:52:12 来源：文档文库

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Whatthepropertybubbleof
china
AmongthecaptivatingfiguresreleasedinChina’s2010censusisaniftylittlestat:Chineseurbaniteswentupfrom36percentofthepopulationin2000,toahair’s-breadthshortof50percentin2010.It’sprettysafetoassume,then,thatbytheend0f2011therewillbemoreChineselivingincitiesthaninthecountryside.Neattiming,therefore,forafreshreportonwhetherChinaisexperiencingapropertybubbleinitsmajorcities.Commerzbank’sAshleyDaviestakesmanyoftheChinabubbleargumentsheadon.“Therearetoomanyemptyhouses”–no,hesays.Whileestimatesvary,acommonlyusedfigureof64memptyhomesequatestovacanthomesperhundredpeople.IntheUS,thatfigureis
per100.“Chinesepropertiesareexpensive”–yes,hesays,butnottooexpensive.HousepricetoincomeratiosinsomepartsofChinaaredizzying–takeBeijing,whereCommerzbanksaysit’s38timesaverageannualincomes.Butinothercities,likeShenyang,thefigureisstillaround10–.somewhereinbetweenFrankfurt(5andNewYork(12,butlessthanTaipei(20andSingapore(18.Ifwagesrisequicklyenough,someoftheseratioswillfallbacktomorecomfortablelevels.Moreimportantly,priceshaven’thitJapaneselevels.Inthe1980s,Tokyoofficespacewentforasmuchas$250,000asquaremetre.InBeijing,thatfigureiscurrentlyjust$4,100–athirdthatofSingapore.What’smore,peoplehavebeendiscussingapotentialpropertybubbleinChinaforyears–inJapannobodysawitcoming.(Whichraisesthequestion–doesabubbleonlyexistifyoucan’tseeit?.
“There’stoomuchinvestmentinresidentialconstruction”–notnecessarily,hesays.WhilehousinginvestmentasapercentageofGDPis8percent–morethanitwasatthepeakinJapan–there’snohistoricalevidenceofhowmuchistoomuch.Chinabuildspoorqualitybuildingsthatwillneedreplacingrelativelyquickly.Combinedwithhighurbanisationrates,thismeansahighlevelofresidentialinvestmentcanbesustainedforalongtimeinChina.Daviesadmitsthatthefinancesoflocalgovernments–whichhavesoldlandinordertogeneraterevenue–areaconcern.Theyhavereliedheavilyonthehousingboom,andaturninthemarketwoulddamagetheirabilitytomeetpayments.
TheimpendingslowdownoftheChineseeconomywillalsoputthequestionofapropertybubble-andwhatitmeansforthebankingsystem–insharperfocus.Meanwhilethe(mootedopeningoftheChinesecapitalaccountcouldresultinhugeoutflowsofcapitalaswealthyChinesesellmainlandassetstobuyupproperty,stocksetcoverseas.Inconclusion:Inourviewthepropertymarketisguiltyofexuberancebutdoesnotyetconstituteatruebubble.Hence,therationalepolicyresponseistoproceedwithcapitalaccountliberalisationwhilekeepinganirongriponthepropertymarket.Thisseemstobeexactlytheapproachbeingattemptedbytheauthorities.Butonethingthatsticksoutisthischart,showingresidentialinvestmentagainstfixedassetinvestmentoverthepast7years.Itmakesyouwonder–whiletheremaynotbeahousinginvestmentbubbleinChina–mighttherebeaninvestmentbubbleinsomethingelse?(Airports,trainstations,shoppingmalls…
SignsaregrowingthatChina'sgovernmentisdiscreetlyadjustingitsmedium-termstrategyoftacklingthecountry'sred-hotpropertysector.Inrecentweeks,there'sbeenanotablelowervolumeoncallsfortheintroductionofsomesortofpropertytax,apotentiallypowerfulfiscaltoolwidelyconsideredoneofthelastresortsforthegovernmenttoreininrunawayhousingpricesThatsaid,populistswouldstillarguethattheChinesegovernmentneedsabetterexplanationforbeingsolateinelevatingpublichousingtoakeyroleinthedualpurposeofcoolingthemarketandreiningininflation.Undertheexcuseoftreatingrealestateasaneconomicengine,there'sdeep-rootedresistancewithinthebureaucracytogiveupguaranteedwindfallsfromlandsalesandproperty-transactiontaxes.Onceagain,conflictofinterest,nottechnicalitiessuchashotmoneyandcheapfinancing,isthelong-termhurdleforwhatthePBOCdescribesas'thehealthydevelopment'ofChina'spropertymarket.

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